Pre-Birkie 2016

Talk about upcoming events

Moderator: Moderator Group

bmullin
xcskiforum 30K
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:18 am
Location: Lindstrom, MN

Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby bmullin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 11:56 am

Last weekend was one of the big tune-up races for the Birkie just two short weeks away. Last year I used this race to try and refine my race strategy and judge how things were doing. It went poorly. Right from the gun last year I felt like garbage and that was true the whole way through.

This year started out feeling similar but different. I was feeling fatigue this year. Things rounded out to be a little better though by the end.

Read the full novel here:
http://www.cyclova.com/2016/02/mullins-pre-birkie-42k-skate-race-report.html

Ben

MN Hoser
Ski Forum God
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:26 pm
Location: St. Paul, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby MN Hoser » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:04 pm

A couple things.

-Yup, love the writeup
-I'm almost sure Tom Meyer wasn't feeling good and skied in the 26 and didn't finish the 42. I'm not sure if you have him in there as a data point.
-A lot of guys showing up to race are the ones in shape (a race result bias). The ones not showing up, you have no clue on their conditioning. Unfortunately, the guys in the Top 200 tend to stay in shape as a lifestyle (even if they don't show up), and you need to kick someone out.
-I felt like crap during the first half of the race and great the second half, but my speed didn't change drastically. (A weird deal, actually.) I put 90 seconds into the group I was with, but John had slowing skis.
-I used to be very consistent with my results, but not so much anymore. But if you assume that I'll do as well this year as last (I think that's fair), if you ski the Birkie like you did the pre-Birkie, you have 2 minutes to spare (based my result only and on last year's results for top 200). That doesn't take into acct traffic coming out of wave 1 or a course breaking down with traffic, all those details.
-Probably the biggest thing that hurt you was the Birkie being declared a world loppet race at the last minute. That'll bring in 15 or 20 hot shots and I assume that kicks out that many locals.

Jay

MN Hoser
Ski Forum God
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:26 pm
Location: St. Paul, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby MN Hoser » Mon Feb 08, 2016 2:34 pm

One more thing, that new section of trail we skied adds a significant climb (check the vertical) before 77. I'm sure some more guys will come unraveled on that hill and the 77 hill compared to that area in previous years. A lot of people can struggle up B hill, but lose a minute or two in the final 10 km.

Jay

bmullin
xcskiforum 30K
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:18 am
Location: Lindstrom, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby bmullin » Mon Feb 08, 2016 7:56 pm

The comparisons are predicated on the assumption that those at the pointy end tend to maintain their relative fitness from race to race and season to season. It isn't perfect but it's something. So in effect I'm counting in racing bias.

I'm wondering about the World Lopped deal. It was a world loopet the last three years so I'm not sure if this makes a difference or not. It probably doesn't help though.

I've got some data on the new hill. It's going to be a big deal. I'll share it when I get home. I also sent it to Ari so it may show up on Birkie Guide in more detail too.

MN Hoser
Ski Forum God
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:26 pm
Location: St. Paul, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby MN Hoser » Mon Feb 08, 2016 8:24 pm

Hey, don't warn the enemy.

bmullin
xcskiforum 30K
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:18 am
Location: Lindstrom, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby bmullin » Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:11 am

What was that Jay? They bulldozed all the hills after OO? It's all downhill from the high point? Yeah, that's what I heard too.

blckdmnd
xcskiforum 20K
Posts: 48
Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2015 9:53 am
Location: Hayward, WI

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby blckdmnd » Tue Feb 09, 2016 11:41 am

Nice write up. It seems you have really turned it up a few clicks within the last year. I love your data tracking over the years, what are you using to come up with all this? I have been looking into the world of gps hrm watches but can't seem to find one that is heads and tails above the other.

As for the new section of trail, the only thing I can compare it to is the long winding hill between OO and gravel pit. There wasn't trail markers when I have skied it but I would guess its all of 1K long. Nothing too steep. There is a spot midway you might be able to V2 even. Its just a long bit of climbing, 3-5 minutes I would guess depending on your fitness. Although you do have a nice recovery coming down it is right back into 77 hill , oh and then just cross the lake. Needless to say this new element is going to chew some people up.

bmullin
xcskiforum 30K
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:18 am
Location: Lindstrom, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby bmullin » Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:26 pm

My GPS data has been collected over the years with a variety of Garmin products. Forerunner 305 (long obsolete), Fenix 2 (semi-obsolete), and a Forerunner 920xt (current). Any or all of those is perfectly adequate for the purpose of gathering ski data as are a number of other Garmin products. Polar and Suunto also have products that would work though I'm not familiar with them.

Digging into the data on my race alone I rely on the PC based SportTracks (https://www.zonefivesoftware.com/). You can use Garmin's Garmin Connect, but I like to have a local hard copy of my data and don't necessarily trust I'll always have access to anything web based. My data is also synced automatically to Strava which does a few fun things, but those are just for funsies.

The correlation data from race to race and year to year is all my own processing in a custom Excel spreadsheet with macros I wrote.

MN Hoser
Ski Forum God
Posts: 1067
Joined: Tue Dec 12, 2006 12:26 pm
Location: St. Paul, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby MN Hoser » Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:06 pm

Regarding Euros in the race (or anyone else fast). If a 100 really fast guys show up, that leaves 100 spots open for the rest of us weekend warriors. So this year, the race was not going to be a World Loppet event (whatever they call it). That would have opened up 10-15 spots (a guess) or so compared to last year, assuming the rest of the field remains the same. Now they're back in as a race, so it's equivalent to last year.

Another way to look as this.... I seem to remember making a rough estimation that roughly 20 guys get kicked out of the Elite Wave. That means you need to be one of the 20 getting in. When I came out of Wave 1, I was not one of the top 20 going through the Powerlines, I can guarantee that. It would be great if you had a spotter at B hill that would count Wave 1 bibs and let you know where you're at.

One more data point. Andy Schakel and I did a bunch of intervals this fall and he's in shape. (He also kicked my butt in the intervals.) I certainly think one of those 20 spots will go to him, but this is racing. You have to have the skis and a good day.

Good luck,

Jay

bmullin
xcskiforum 30K
Posts: 126
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2010 10:18 am
Location: Lindstrom, MN

Re: Pre-Birkie 2016

Postby bmullin » Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:20 pm

I was looking at qualifiers and relegated skiers the last few years. Your 20 seems right, but there also doesn't seem to have been 200 starters either. So roughly 40 wave one skiers make the jump.

This is fun and all, but really I'm just focused on skiing to the best of my abilities on the day.
Attachments
wavequalifiers.JPG
wavequalifiers.JPG (39.43 KiB) Viewed 990 times


Return to “Races and Racing”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests